In recent years, the #NoEstimation movement has gained traction in Agile project management communities, promoting the idea that estimation is a waste of time. Advocates argue that estimates are often inaccurate, time-consuming, and prone to creating unrealistic expectations. But is throwing out estimation altogether the answer? Avec Managing Director, Dennis Grant doesn’t think so.
“I’ve drunk the Agile Kool-Aid—but not all of it,” says Dennis. “Agile planning, governance, and core elements of project management often get thrown out the window, but you can’t run a business without scope, a plan, and a forecast, so how can you run a project without them?”
The Case for Estimation
Estimation isn’t just about predicting how long a project might take; it’s the backbone of effective project management. From budgeting and resource allocation to risk management and continuous improvement, estimation provides the structure that keeps projects on track and organsiations financially sound. Dennis explains, “without estimation, you end up with guess work. Why not leverage what you already know, past performance and productivity rations, to create more accurate forecasts?”
By balancing the flexibility of agile project management techniques with structured estimation techniques, organisations can avoid the extremes of over planning and under preparing. As Dennis puts it, “the sweet spot is somewhere in between.”
The Hybrid Approach: Agile with Accountability
In a world where agile often emphasises flexibility over structure, finding a balance is key. Dennis advocates for a hybrid approach that combines agile’s flexibility with structured estimation methods. This approach doesn’t aim to slow down projects with bureaucratic overhead, rather it provides a pragmatic framework that ensures agility without sacrificing accountability.
At the center of this approach is the use of parametric models like SEER, a tool that leverages historical data and productivity ratios to enhance estimation accuracy. Unlike traditional methods that rely on subjective guesswork or overly conservative buffers, SEER introduces data-driven precision. “SEER is one of the best-kept secrets in estimation. It accounts for variables like team experience and technology quality. It’s not guesswork; it’s science,” Dennis explains.
This model not only improves forecasting but also enhances stakeholder confidence. When estimates are backed by data and transparent reasoning, it becomes easier to secure buy-in from clients, management, and team members. The hybrid model also encourages continuous learning. By regularly comparing estimates to actual outcomes, organisations can refine their processes and improve future performance.
Moreover, a hybrid approach allows organisations to navigate the pitfalls of both extremes. Overly rigid Waterfall models can become outdated before a project even begins, while pure Agile approaches risk endless cycles with no clear endpoint. With hybrid estimation, teams can maintain momentum while keeping sight of overarching business goals. “The sweet spot is somewhere in between,” Dennis emphasises. “It’s about being flexible enough to adapt and structured enough to stay accountable.”.
Challenging the #NoEstimation Mindset
“The idea that you don’t need to estimate because you have a fixed sprint length is flawed,” Dennis argues. “You might know how much a sprint costs, but do you know what you’re getting out of it? If you had a mechanic work on your car without telling you what they’re fixing, would you be happy with the result?”
The #NoEstimation movement has raised valid concerns about traditional estimation methods. Still, abandoning estimation altogether leaves businesses navigating blindly. By leveraging historical data, productivity ratios, and agile principles, organisations can achieve better forecasting and more successful project outcomes. “At the end of the day, estimation isn’t the problem; bad estimation is” says Dennis. As Agile continues to evolve, finding the balance between flexibility and accountability will be key. With the right tools and mindset, estimation can be a powerful enabler of project success—not a burden.
So, where do we come in?
In the evolving landscape of agile project management, the debate around estimation continues to spark diverse opinions. While the #NoEstimation movement raises important points about the limitations of traditional estimation methods, completely discarding estimation is not the solution.
At Avec, we are committed to helping our clients achieve a balance through a hybrid approach. Reach out to the Avec team today to learn more about how our hybrid estimation techniques can transform your project delivery.
